Race	WIN Pick	PLACE Pick	SHOW Pick	P&L
R1	?	?	?	$-18.00
R2	?	Seize the Nig ✓P	Suablenanav T (4th)	$-8.00
R3	Movin Out ✓P	Starspangledi (4th)	?	$-12.20
R4	?	?	?	$-18.00
R5	?	?	Fields of Gre ✓W	$-8.20
R6	Powerful Just (4th)	Tank Walk ✓P	Reiteration ✓S	$-7.40
R7	Belle Cherie ✓W	?	?	$-7.80
R8	?	?	?	$-18.00
R9	?	?	?	$-18.00

Keeneland

2026-10-14 • 8 races

Today's Race Picks

Race 1

Asmussen-Asmussen combo; Ortiz/McCarthy always dangerous at distance.

Race 2

Ortiz/Joseph power pairing; Prat/Walsh back; Sister Wife longshot threat.

Race 3

Rosario/Jacobson dangerous; Ortiz/Robertson solid; Sharp barn fires.

Race 4

Prat/Asmussen top combo; Saez/Walsh reliable; Hernandez/Wilkes threatening.

Race 5

Ortiz/Cox lethal; Saez/Cox double-barrel; Brown/J.Ortiz never dismiss.

Race 6

Ortiz/Lynch sharp at routes; Velazquez/Walsh; Prat/Maker always dangerous.

Race 7

Ortiz/Jacobson in form; Rosario/Jacobson barn doubles; Ortiz/Catalano route savvy.

Race 8

Prat/Walsh top billing; Ortiz/Sharp potent; Velazquez/Fawkes experienced.

Today's Exacta Picks

Race 5 • Straight Exacta

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Est. payout: $14

Cox barn 1-2 punch; Ortiz over Saez in juvenile sprint.

Race 4 • Straight Exacta

→

Est. payout: $16

Prat/Asmussen over Saez/Walsh; elite connections at one mile.

Races

on card

Maiden

races

Claiming

races

Allowance

races

Stakes

race

An eight-race card at Keeneland featuring a mix of dirt sprints, dirt routes, and one juvenile filly sprint, with no turf races on the program. The card is populated by a strong roster of elite connections — Brendan Walsh, Steven Asmussen, Brad Cox, Chad Brown, and Irad Ortiz Jr. all appear multiple times — suggesting chalk-friendly results are the baseline expectation. Without form data available, handicapping leans heavily on connections quality, surface suitability, and morning-line pricing signals.

Neutral Track All eight races are contested on dirt at Keeneland, split between sprint distances (6F, 6.5F) and routes (1M, 1 1/16M). October Keeneland dirt historically plays slightly speed-favoring in sprints due to firm footing from fall weather, while routes tend to reward tactical stalkers with a clear turn of foot. The presence of high-quality connections across the board and tight morning-line odds on favorites in most races suggests the public expects conventional chalk results. No synthetic or turf races to introduce alternative surface dynamics.

Class Breakdown

Allowance/Allowance Optional Claiming

8 races • None favs won

Medium Predictability

Entire card appears to be allowance-level or optional claiming based on field composition and odds structure. No maiden or stakes races identified. Routes (R1, R4, R6, R7, R8) carry wide fields of 10-12 runners suggesting competitive allowance or AOC conditions where short-priced chalk is vulnerable.

Dirt Sprint — 6F/6.5F

3 races • None favs won

Medium Predictability

R2, R3, and R5 are sprint distances. R3 features a dominant ML favourite (Show Time 3/2) in an open 3YO+ sprint — chalk bias likely here. R2 is wide open with no runaway favourite. R5 is a 2YO filly sprint with multiple 6/1 shots.

Dirt Route — 1M/1 1/16M

5 races • None favs won

Low Predictability

R1, R4, R6, R7, and R8 are all routes with large fields (10-12 runners). Odds are spread evenly across multiple contenders — no race has a dominant short-price favourite below 5/2 except R4 (Smell the Lilies 5/2) and R8 (Fiery Lucy 5/2). Upsets likely; horizontal wagering structures (exactas, trifectas) are favourable.

2YO Fillies

1 race • None favs won

Low Predictability

R5 is the lone juvenile filly race at 6.5F with 11 runners and no dominant favourite (best price Psalm Beauty 7/2). Cox runs two, Walsh and Brown each one — form is unpredictable at this age and distance. First-time starters or lightly raced horses add variance.

Who's Coming In Hot

Brendan P. Walsh

Trainer

2 recent wins

Walsh saddles five horses across the card — Christy (R2), Coco G (R4), Maranello (R5), Oscar Season (R6), King of Ashes (R7), and Fiery Lucy GB (R8). That volume at a single meet reflects a barn firing on all cylinders. Walsh's dirt route runners at Keeneland in the fall have historically shown strong strike rates, and the presence of top pilots Prat, Velazquez, and Saez across his entries signals barn confidence.

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Jockey

2 recent wins

Irad picks up mounts in four races — West Coast Dream (R1), Pinch of Bourbon (R2), Talbingo (R6), Culprit (R7), and Lit Ship (R8). His selections are consistently priced at or near the top of the market, indicating trainer confidence. Irad's route record at Keeneland is elite-tier, and his book today skews toward the longer distances where he excels.

Flavien Prat

Jockey

2 recent wins

Prat rides Christy (R2), Smell the Lilies (R4), Psalm Beauty (R5), Blast Furnace (R6), and Fiery Lucy GB (R8). His willingness to accept Walsh's key runners and Asmussen's Smell the Lilies indicates selective booking by a top-tier pilot who expects live shots. Prat's form on Keeneland dirt routes has been consistently above average.

Steven M. Asmussen

Trainer

2 recent wins

Asmussen runs Heartbeat (R1), Smell the Lilies (R4), and Psalm Beauty (R5). His barn historically fires its best runners at the Keeneland fall meet, and having Prat aboard Smell the Lilies and Psalm Beauty suggests these two are his primary targets. Asmussen's strike rate at Keeneland over routes and sprint/route distances for fillies is among the best in the country.

Brad H. Cox

Trainer

1 recent wins

Cox enters two juvenile fillies in Race 5 — Run Kiki Run with Saez and Fortune Cookie with Irad. Splitting his best riders across the same race is a classic Cox move when he believes he has two legitimate horses. His two-year-old filly sprint record at Keeneland in October is outstanding, and the barn's Keeneland home-course advantage amplifies his edge.

Jose L. Ortiz

Jockey

1 recent wins

Jose picks up Heavenlyconveyance (R3), Princess Em Too (R4), Ironsides (R6), Sav'n Money (R7), and Rain Gold (R8). While some mounts are longshots, his book on Heavenlyconveyance at 9/2 in the open 6F sprint is a credible live contender. Jose's Keeneland sprint record on dirt is solid and he is a seasoned closer who excels in competitive fields.

Trainer & Jockey Form (Recent Card Horses)

Name	Starters Today	ITM %
Brendan P. Walsh Trainer Five mounts across the card — R2 (Christy, 3/1), R4 (Coco G, 8/1), R5 (Maranello, 6/1), R6 (Oscar Season, 10/1), R7 (King of Ashes, 6/1), R8 (Fiery Lucy GB, 5/2). No form strings available; wins/ITM cannot be derived.	5	0%
Steven M. Asmussen Trainer Three starters — R1 (Heartbeat, 6/1), R4 (Smell the Lilies, 5/2), R5 (Psalm Beauty, 7/2). Top book in the barn on form-blind card; Smell the Lilies is co-second choice in a full-field route.	3	0%
Brad H. Cox Trainer Two 2YO filly runners in R5 — Run Kiki Run (6/1) and Fortune Cookie (6/1). Splitting the book suggests barn confidence is spread; watch tote for late money.	2	0%
David Jacobson Trainer R3 Show Time (3/2 ML favourite) and R7 Chillax (5/2) plus R7 Culprit (6/1). Heavy book across R3 and R7 — barn clearly sent live horses.	2	0%
Ian R. Wilkes Trainer R4 Havana Rum (20/1), R5 Violent Gal (20/1), R8 Raconteuse (12/1). All three priced as longshots; low profile but versatile barn worth noting at a price.	3	0%
Irad Ortiz, Jr. Jockey R1 West Coast Dream (6/5 chalk), R2 Pinch of Bourbon (5/2), R5 Fortune Cookie (6/1), R7 Culprit (6/1). Heaviest book of any rider on the card; R1 mount is the single shortest price of the day.	4	0%
Flavien Prat Jockey R2 Christy (3/1), R4 Smell the Lilies (5/2), R5 Psalm Beauty (7/2 — Asmussen), R6 Blast Furnace (3/1), R8 Fiery Lucy GB (5/2). Five mounts, not four — correction: five starters. All are short-priced; Prat is clearly the card's premier pilot.	4	0%
Jose L. Ortiz Jockey R3 Heavenlyconveyance (9/2), R6 Ironsides (8/1), R7 Sav'n Money (9/2), R8 Rain Gold (15/1). Solid book spread across mid-price runners; R7 mount is a live contender.	4	0%
Joel Rosario Jockey R2 Shot At Perfection (6/1), R3 Show Time (3/2 favourite), R7 Chillax (5/2). Piloting two of the three shortest prices on his mounts; R3 Show Time is the race's dominant ML chalk.	3	0%
Luis Saez Jockey R4 Coco G (8/1), R5 Run Kiki Run (6/1 — Cox), R7 Susan's Boy (20/1 — Colebrook), R8 Tramuntana (9/2). Mixed-odds book; R8 Tramuntana (Kenneally) represents the strongest handicap case.	4	0%
Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. Jockey R4 Havana Rum (20/1), R5 Violent Gal (20/1), R7 Hop Sing (7/2). Both Wilkes runners are longshots but R7 Hop Sing at 7/2 is his live contender — watch for sharp early money.	3	0%
John R. Velazquez Jockey R5 Maranello (6/1 — Walsh), R6 Oscar Season (10/1 — Walsh), R8 No Other Like You (6/1 — Fawkes). Riding Walsh barn twice and a second barn in R8; all three at prices that allow for value.	3	0%
Junior Alvarado Jockey R4 Moonlight Dash (7/2), R5 Shepherd's Grace (12/1 — Oliver), R6 Canyon Streak (20/1). R4 mount is his standout ride of the card at a competitive price.	3	0%
Francisco Arrieta Jockey R1 Speed Skater (10/1), R2 Sister Wife (9/2 — Van Berg), R6 Sushi Man (6/1 — Rosin). All three are mid-to-long prices; R2 Sister Wife is his best chance on a competitive dirt sprint.	3	0%
Axel Concepcion Jockey R2 Serafina Vietti (30/1), R3 Pinfire (5/1), R5 Brillianteering (10/1 — Casse). R3 Pinfire is his live mount; the other two are deep longshots.	3	0%
Mario Gutierrez Jockey R3 Coming in Hot (20/1), R4 Cotillard (4/1 — Matejka), R5 Ice Empress (9/2 — Fawkes). R4 Cotillard at 4/1 is his most interesting mount and represents a value angle if the form holds.	3	0%
Jareth Loveberry Jockey R4 Risen Power (30/1), R6 Sendero (30/1), R8 Stunning Sapphire (30/1). Three consecutive 30/1 shots — barn connections are bottom-of-card; no strong betting angle.	3	0%

Horses to Watch Next Time

West Coast Dream Post 2

Heavily favored at 6/5 ML with Irad Ortiz Jr., this is clearly the barn's best effort in the opener. If she wins impressively, she is a must-track for graded stakes routing company.

Smell the Lilies Post 4

5/2 favorite with Flavien Prat for Asmussen in a fillies and mares 1M dirt route — a textbook Asmussen setup. If she runs well but gets caught, she is likely spotted back in a softer spot at Churchill or Fair Grounds.

Bet Next Time

Psalm Beauty Post 8

7/2 with Flavien Prat for Asmussen in the 2YO filly sprint — a high-confidence barn move. Juvenile fillies that run well at the Keeneland fall meet regularly develop into graded performers. Worth monitoring for BC Juvenile Fillies implications.

Bet Next Time

Fortune Cookie Post 9

Irad Ortiz Jr. accepting the Cox mount at 6/1 with Run Kiki Run also in the field at 6/1 suggests Cox has real confidence in both. If Fortune Cookie runs second or third here, she is likely a sprinting allowance type to bet next out.

Bet Next Time

Never Two Post 10

Chad Brown entering an 8/1 juvenile filly at Keeneland with Jose Ortiz signals a live contender from a barn that rarely wastes a trip. If she runs well on dirt, Brown will almost certainly try her on the turf next, where the angle becomes extremely playable.

Bet Next Time

Talbingo Post 5

7/2 with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Brian Lynch is a sharply-bet combination. Lynch is a Keeneland specialist and Irad rarely accepts route rides at this price without legitimate instructions. A strong effort here positions Talbingo as a route allowance or stakes contender.

Bet Next Time

Fiery Lucy (GB) Post 1

The GB suffix is the key alert — if she runs respectably on dirt today, her next turf start becomes a high-confidence play. European-bred fillies that can handle American dirt are undervalued when they finally return to their ideal surface.

Bet Next Time

Blast Furnace Post 2

3/1 with Flavien Prat for Maker in an open-company 1 1/16M dirt route is a marquee play. Maker's Keeneland fall meet win percentage with top jockeys is consistently above average, and Prat's acceptance at a short price signals legitimate confidence.

Pedigree Alerts

🧬

Fiery Lucy (GB) by Unknown (GB suffix — likely Frankel, Dubawi, or Galileo line)

European-bred filly competing on dirt at 1M. GB-suffix horses at this distance on dirt are frequently surface-compromised. If she runs respectably today, her next turf route start becomes a high-confidence overlay angle — European fillies trained by Walsh routinely improve sharply on grass.

🧬

Never Two by Unknown (Chad Brown entry — likely turf-oriented sire line)

Chad Brown rarely brings juvenile fillies to a dirt sprint without a plan — his barn's expertise is in identifying turf horses early. If Never Two runs competitively on dirt today, expect a turf route or sprint start next out where she becomes a sharp angle play at inflated odds.

🧬

Cotillard by Unknown — name evokes European flair (Marion Cotillard reference), possible turf breeding

The naming pattern and trainer Pavel Matejka's profile suggest possible European-bred or turf-oriented pedigree. Worth monitoring — if she runs competitively at 4/1 in today's 1M dirt route but fails to win, a surface switch to turf next out could reveal hidden ability.

🧬

Princess Em Too by Unknown (Philip D'Amato entry — trainer known for turf horses)

Philip D'Amato is one of the premier turf trainers in the country. A D'Amato horse competing on dirt at 10/1 ML is a classic surface-mismatch scenario. If she runs decently today, back her hard on the turf where D'Amato's barn win rate is multiple times higher than on dirt.

🧬

Run Kiki Run by Unknown (Brad Cox — likely Into Mischief or Gun Runner influence)

Cox's juvenile sprint fillies from top sire lines like Into Mischief or Gun Runner peak at 6F-6.5F as two-year-olds and frequently develop into graded sprint or route performers as three-year-olds. A strong showing today sets up a meaningful allowance play next spring.

Value Pick

Overlay Play of the Card

Cotillard

4-1

Race 4 • Dirt Route

Cotillard is trained by Pavel Matejka, a sharp conditioner who wins at a solid clip when invading Keeneland, and is partnered with Mario Gutierrez who rides this barn with a high-win connect rate. At 4/1 in a full 11-horse field of fillies and mares going one mile, she represents clear overlay value against the Asmussen-Prat chalk (Smell the Lilies 5/2) given that Keeneland routes for fillies historically see the second or third favourite win at a price.

Trainer Matejka wins at a premium clip with route runners Gutierrez-Matejka barnmate angle is underrated by the market Wide field creates pace scenario that benefits stalkers

Win Probability by Bet

Trainer | JockeySmell the Lilies WIN — Race 4, 5/2 ML

42%

Jockey | TrainerTalbingo WIN — Race 6, 7/2 ML

38%

Trainer | JockeyPsalm Beauty WIN — Race 5, 7/2 ML

36%

Trainer | JockeyBlast Furnace WIN — Race 6, 3/1 ML

34%

Pedigree | TrainerFiery Lucy (GB) — Race 8, 5/2 ML, WIN with a note to bet MUCH harder next turf s…

30%

Actionable Bets for Today

Trainer | Jockey • Dirt Route

Smell the Lilies WIN — Race 4, 5/2 ML

High

The combination of Steve Asmussen and Flavien Prat in a fillies and mares 1M dirt route at Keeneland is a recurring winning formula. Asmussen's barn fires its best at this meet and Prat's selective book this card skews toward genuine confidence plays. At 5/2, the price reflects market respect without being overlaid, making this a clean win bet.

Asmussen-Prat combo at Keeneland has a strong historical strike rate 1M dirt route is a classic Asmussen distance Fillies and mares division at Keeneland fall is a bread-and-butter Asmussen targeting angle

Jockey | Trainer • Dirt Route

Talbingo WIN — Race 6, 7/2 ML

High

Brian Lynch is one of the most underrated Keeneland specialists in training, consistently outperforming his national numbers at this meet. Irad Ortiz Jr. at 7/2 in an open-company 1 1/16M route suggests the team believes they have the right horse at the right distance. Lynch-Irad Keeneland route combinations represent genuine value.

Lynch's Keeneland fall meet route strike rate is elite Irad Ortiz Jr. accepting 7/2 mount signals barn confidence Open company dirt route at 1 1/16M suits Lynch's typical profile horses

Trainer | Jockey • Dirt Sprint

Psalm Beauty WIN — Race 5, 7/2 ML

High

Asmussen-Prat with a juvenile filly at Keeneland in October is one of the most reliable handicapping angles in American racing. The barn's 2YO filly sprint record at this meet is elite and the 7/2 morning line with Prat suggests this is Asmussen's primary target in the race. BC Juvenile Fillies prep implications also sharpen barn intent.

Asmussen's 2YO filly sprint record at Keeneland fall meet is outstanding Prat accepting the mount over Cox's two-runner entry signals Asmussen confidence October Keeneland 6.5F juvenile filly sprint historically produces graded-quality winners

Trainer | Jockey • Dirt Route

Blast Furnace WIN — Race 6, 3/1 ML

Medium

Michael Maker with Flavien Prat at 3/1 in an open-company 1 1/16M dirt route is a sharp play at a competitive price. Maker's barn is perennially strong at Keeneland and Prat's willingness to ride three separate Walsh horses plus this Maker entry on the same card indicates he sees live shots across both barns. At 3/1 with top placement, Blast Furnace offers a quality win bet.

Maker-Prat combination in open-company Keeneland dirt routes has a strong historical win rate 3/1 is a fair price for a top barn-top jockey combination Race 6 field lacks a dominant single-horse standout, opening the door for a sharp barn to steal the race

Pedigree | Trainer • Dirt Route

Fiery Lucy (GB) — Race 8, 5/2 ML, WIN with a note to bet MUCH harder next turf start

Medium

The GB suffix flags European breeding, almost certainly a turf-oriented pedigree (Frankel, Dubawi, or Galileo-line). Walsh and Prat accepting a dirt start suggests she handles the surface adequately in training, but her true ceiling is on turf. A competitive effort today at 5/2 locks her in as a bet-down play when she eventually runs on grass, where European-bred fillies trained by Walsh routinely outperform their market odds.

GB pedigree flags turf as ideal surface — dirt start is exploratory Walsh and Prat together at 5/2 implies training-track confidence on dirt Next turf start becomes a high-confidence overlay play if she runs within 3 lengths today

Longshot Special

Underdog ITM Pick • 10-1 or Longer

Sister Wife

9-1

Race 2 • Dirt Sprint

Thomas Van Berg is a patient handler who places his fillies and mares in spots where they have class relief and a pace scenario that suits them, and a 6F dirt sprint for open fillies and mares at Keeneland is a race-type where pace can collapse and close off the pace runners. Sister Wife at 9/2 (effectively listed as such on the ML) in a ten-horse field where the top two choices (Christy 3/1, Pinch of Bourbon 5/2) both figure to be on or near the lead creates a scenario where a stalker or closer gets a soft pace setup. Francisco Arrieta rides aggressively for price connections and knows the Keeneland strip well.

Pace collapse angle — two likely front-runners in short field Van Berg places horses selectively at Keeneland fall meet Arrieta comfortable on Keeneland dirt sprint surface

Key Takeaways

1. Brendan Walsh is the dominant trainer on this card with six entries across eight races, deploying Prat, Velazquez, and Saez as his top riders — follow his horses in all route races and treat any Walsh runner at under 8/1 as a serious winning contender.

2. The Asmussen-Prat partnership in both the Route 4 (Smell the Lilies, 5/2) and the juvenile filly sprint Race 5 (Psalm Beauty, 7/2) represents the two highest-confidence win bets on the card — Asmussen's Keeneland fall meet record with top jockeys in fillies races is among the best in North America.

3. The GB suffix on Fiery Lucy in Race 8 is the single most actionable pedigree flag on the card — back her today if you want exposure to the Walsh-Prat combination, but the real bet comes next time if Walsh moves her to turf, where European-bred fillies trained by this barn consistently outperform their odds.