Yesterday's Results — 2026-07-12
$90.00 wagered ·
$149.01 returned ·
+$59.01
| Race |
WIN Pick |
PLACE Pick |
SHOW Pick |
P&L |
| R1 |
Bolero Bay ✓W
|
Im Sam ✓S
|
Oscars Angel (4th)
|
$-3.24
|
| R2 |
Just Take Not (4th)
|
Slew Diva ✓P
|
Saras Rose ✓W
|
+$5.97
|
| R1 |
Win Street ✓W
|
Rule Seventy (5th)
|
Blame It On L ✓S
|
+$28.65
|
| R2 |
Rotisserie (9th)
|
Band On The R ✓P
|
Dandy Vandy(F ✓W
|
+$33.59
|
| R1 |
Brave Samanth (5th)
|
Madelyn Attac (4th)
|
Rietta ✓W
|
$-5.96
|
Today's Exacta Picks
Race 5 • Straight Exacta
Est. payout: $22
Brushfire last-out winner over Nadir Han strong sequence.
Race 4 • Box Exacta
Est. payout: $28
Bettera and Corta Fuego both in peak form at route.
A mixed card at Gulfstream featuring two completed dirt races and four still pending. The completed races produced a notable 13-1 upset in Race 1 (Terrie T) while Race 2 went to a short-priced favorite (Facet at 2.1). The card skews heavily toward lower-claiming and maiden-level competition with a roster of regional trainers and journeyman riders dominating connections.
Neutral Track
Based on completed results, the dirt surface at Gulfstream is NOT rewarding chalk consistently — a 13-1 shot (Terrie T) won Race 1 at 1m dirt while the 2.25 favorite Mary Marguerite finished last. Race 2 (5f dirt sprint) did go to the favorite Facet at 2.1. Early indications suggest pace-presser/stalker types are performing better than pure closers in the dirt routes, while speed is holding up in the sprints. Mid-card bias leans toward speed on dirt sprints, neutral to closer-friendly in routes.
Class Breakdown
Allowance/Optional Claiming (Mixed Older)
2 races • 0 favs won
Low Predictability
R1 (1m, 3yo+) produced a massive 13-1 upset with Terrie T beating the 2.25 favorite Mary Marguerite into last. R2 (5f, 3yo+) saw near-chalk Facet (2.1) score — the one result that did hold. Older claiming/allowance routes at Gulfstream in summer are prime upset territory.
Maiden/Debut (2yo)
1 race • 0 favs won
Low Predictability
R3 is a 5f 2yo maiden sprint — two first-time starters (Lord Henry, High Ambition) and horses with limited form. Bullet-working Lord Henry stands out but 2yo maiden sprints are notoriously unpredictable. Vermont (Mark Casse, 3.5) is the market leader.
Allowance Route (4yo+, 1m70y)
1 race • 0 favs won
Medium Predictability
R4 is a full 11-horse field with SARATOGA FLASH as morning-line chalk at 2.62 and Corta Fuego at 3.75. Bettera at 8-1 shows back-to-back wins (form 375611). Large fields in summer routes can produce upset payoffs.
Dirt Sprint (6f, 3yo+)
1 race • 0 favs won
Medium Predictability
R5 features co-favorites R Winchester (2.5) and Wine Candy (2.62) against last-out winner Brushfire (4.0) and last-out winner Brushfire. Barboza double-entry angle is significant. Sprints at Gulfstream can go to the proven closer or front-runner depending on pace setup.
Maiden (3yo fillies, 1m)
1 race • 0 favs won
Low Predictability
R6 is a 9-horse maiden route for 3yo fillies. Elenique (Patrick Biancone, 2.0) is the heavy chalk with form 2-54233. First-time starters (First Class T L C, Lady Sharma) add chaos. Biancone runners deserve respect but the form lines suggest the win remains elusive.
Beaten Favorites
2.25-1
Race 1 • Finished 6/6 • Dirt Route
Dead last despite being the clear chalk at 2.25. Form showed back-to-back seconds but failed to fire at 1m. Beaten favorite with a form line of 5-22266 suggesting she may be declining or the surface/pace scenario didn't suit her. Terrie T at 13-1 took full advantage.
Who's Coming In Hot
Edwin Gonzalez
Jockey
3 recent wins
Gonzalez won Race 1 aboard 13-1 shot Terrie T, demonstrating he can get the job done on longshots. On today's remaining card he rides Lord Henry (2yo FTS, bullet workout) in Race 3 and R Winchester (form 34/7-241, fresh win last out) in Race 7 — both horses show a '1' in recent form. Active book across the card.
Victor Barboza
Trainer
2 recent wins
Saddles both R Winchester (form 34/7-241 — win last out) and Brushfire (form 33286-1 — win last out) in Race 7. Both horses have a '1' as their most recent form figure. Running two in the same race is bold; Brushfire at 4-1 may represent the stable's main hope given its more recent win marker.
David Fawkes
Trainer
2 recent wins
Fawkes trained Mary Marguerite (favored, finished last in Race 1 — a key negative note). However, on the remainder of the card he sends out Corta Fuego (form 452172 — win 2 back, placed last) in Race 4 and Warrior Sophie (form 49654) in Race 6. Corta Fuego shows recent consistency with a '1' and multiple place efforts.
Leonel Reyes
Jockey
2 recent wins
Finished 3rd on Mamuka in Race 1. Rides Curly Sue (form 25- — placed in debut) in Race 6 and ROCK THE STARS in Race 4. Curly Sue is a 3yo filly showing a '2' and '5' in limited form — place potential. Consistent book across route distances.
Pedro Garcia
Trainer
2 recent wins
Sends out Slew De Oro (2yo, form '5', one start) in Race 3 and Navy Cross (form 6-45135, recent win and place) in Race 4. Navy Cross shows a '1' in last 5 and is the more experienced, reliable runner. Garcia active across age groups today.
Trainer & Jockey Form (Recent Card Horses)
| Name |
Starters Today |
Recent Wins |
ITM % |
|
David Fawkes
Trainer
Three starters across the card (Mary Marguerite R1, Corta Fuego R4, Warrior Sophie R6). Mary Marguerite flopped as chalk. Corta Fuego shows a recent 2nd and could ITM in R4 route. No wins visible in recent form strings.
|
3 |
0 |
67% |
|
Pedro Garcia
Trainer
Saddles Navy Cross (R4, form 6-45135 — win and two placings) and Slew De Oro (R3 debut). Navy Cross is clearly the stable's live runner; form shows a recent 1 and consistent ITM presence. Worth noting when Garcia doubles up.
|
2 |
1 |
100% |
|
Jose Castro
Trainer
Runs Gullfaxi (R1, 2nd today) and SPEIGHTSPERCOMETE (R4, scratched). Gullfaxi showed on the board as runner-up. Trainer double split by scratch limits usefulness today.
|
2 |
0 |
50% |
|
Victor Barboza
Trainer
Sends out R Winchester (form 34/7-241, recent 1 and 2) and Brushfire (form 33286-1, last-out winner) in Race 5. Brushfire is a last-out winner and R Winchester hit the board recently — Barboza has live ammunition in the 6f sprint.
|
2 |
1 |
100% |
|
Edwin Gonzalez
Jockey
Won R1 aboard Terrie T (13-1 upset). Also rides Lord Henry (R3), Corta Fuego (R4), and R Winchester (R5). Multiple live mounts today — hot hand on the card after the morning upset. Barn confidence in him is evident.
|
4 |
1 |
75% |
|
Leonel Reyes
Jockey
Most mounts on the card: Mamuka (3rd R1), Baronia (R2), ROCK THE STARS (R4), Brushfire (R5 — last-out winner), Curly Sue (R6). Brushfire is his best chance to score; rest of the book is tough. ITM count driven by Mamuka placing.
|
5 |
0 |
40% |
|
Miguel Vasquez
Jockey
Rides Baronia (R2 3rd), Wine Candy (R5), Eton (R4), First Class T L C (R6 debut). Placed with Baronia. Best remaining chance is Wine Candy, who is co-second choice in R5.
|
4 |
0 |
25% |
|
Jose Morelos
Jockey
Mounts: Starship Spectacle (2nd R2 — ITM), Win Jet Win (R3), SPACE LAUNCH (R4), Just Brilliant (R6). Starship Spectacle ran second. Tough book overall with long shots and maidens. Win Jet Win is short pedigree on form.
|
4 |
0 |
0% |
|
Pedro Pena
Jockey
Three mounts: Marios Sweet Girl (5th R1), Slew De Oro (R3 — second start), He Be Hoppin (R5). Limited upside based on form and odds. He Be Hoppin is 17-1 on a tough sprint surface.
|
3 |
0 |
0% |
|
Diego Herrera
Jockey
Road To Midnight (R3), SARATOGA FLASH (R4 — co-morning line favorite at 2.62), Elenique (R6 — odds-on at 2.0). SARATOGA FLASH and Elenique are both major contenders; if either fires Herrera has a big afternoon.
|
3 |
0 |
33% |
|
Edgar Perez
Jockey
Nenas Star (5th R2), Navy Cross (R4), Knows Everything (R6). Navy Cross is his most live ride at 4.5. Nenas Star underperformed versus market expectations.
|
3 |
0 |
0% |
Horses to Watch Next Time
3rdWIN2nd3rd8th2nd
Won at 13-1 in competitive field, beating the short-priced favorite convincingly. Connections (Brian Lusk/Edwin Gonzalez) will be emboldened to run back at a similar or slightly higher level. Form reads 312382 — this horse fires at medium odds regularly and just caught a loose pace scenario.
Bet Next Time
5thPREV2nd2nd2nd6th6th
Heavy favorite flopped last. Trainer David Fawkes needs to diagnose — whether it was a bad trip, equipment issue, or health concern. Avoid next start until excuse is confirmed. If she bounces back sharp, the overlay could be enormous at the new price.
7thWIN5th6thWIN
Ran 4th at 5.5-1 as a 3yo against older horses at 1m. Recent form is excellent (71561 = win last out). Likely improving; move back to same-age company or slight class drop should see this filly/colt winning.
Bet Next Time
4th5th2ndWIN7th2nd
Second-choice price (3.75) in Race 4 at 1m70y. Form shows consistent placing and a recent win. Trainer David Fawkes bounce-back angle after Race 1 disaster with Mary Marguerite. Edwin Gonzalez (hot jock today) in the irons — strong pairing.
Bet Next Time
3rd3rd2nd8th6thPREVWIN
Won last out (most recent form digit = 1) and now returns for the Barboza barn in a 6f dirt sprint. The layoff win pattern suggests the trainer conditions this horse well fresh. At 4-1 with a recent win, represents solid each-way value in a competitive sprint.
Bet Next Time
Bullet workout on All Weather Track (ranked 1/2 on Jul 5) is the standout data point in a field of first and second starters. Edwin Gonzalez in the irons adds further confidence. At 5.5-1 in a 2yo maiden sprint, the bullet work from a small group is a meaningful signal.
Bet Next Time
3rd
Mark Casse is a Hall of Fame trainer with a strong record developing 2yos. Third on debut is a classic Casse pattern before winning second start. Market agrees at 3.5-1 (joint co-favorite). Watch closely — if Vermont breaks well today, this could be a next-out winner at a better price elsewhere.
Bet Next Time
3rd4th/th7thPREV2nd4thWIN
Most recent form digit is '1' (win last out). Post-layoff win pattern (-241) suggests horse is currently in top form. Edwin Gonzalez aboard and listed as race favorite at 2.5-1. Barboza barn also has Brushfire in this race as backup option.
Bet Next Time
Workout Standouts — full detail in Workouts PDF
⏱
Lord Henry
B
AWT bullet: 1:01.11, rank 1/2 (Jul 05)
First-time starter posting a bullet on the all-weather track — small field but the bullet designation confirms he was the best of the group. Joseph Orseno is a capable conditioner for debut runners. At 5.5-1, Lord Henry represents solid value if the bullet translates to dirt speed in a 5f 2yo maiden sprint.
⏱
Mamuka
C
Dirt: 47.77, rank 3/34 (Jul 05)
Ranked 3rd out of 34 horses — an excellent work that translated to a 3rd-place finish today at 7.5-1. The strong half-mile work signaled peak fitness. Worth tracking next start; if he draws a softer spot or gets an honest pace, he could move forward.
⏱
Marz Eatoats
C
Dirt: 35.97, rank 3/27 (Jul 06)
Scratched from R2 but the workout (3rd of 27 at 3f) showed genuine readiness. This horse was primed to run today. Watch for the next start — the fitness is clearly there and she may be spotted in a softer spot.
⏱
Supreme Honor
C
Dirt: 54.92, rank 34/34 (Jul 05)
Dead last of 34 workers — a significant red flag. This 15-1 shot is clearly not working well leading into this start. Fade in betting; the workout confirms she is not sharp heading into the 6f sprint.
Pedigree Alerts
🧬
Slew De Oro by Unknown — name suggests Seattle Slew/Medaglia d'Oro cross possibility
Name construction (Slew De Oro) hints at classic dirt breeding. If by a Medaglia d'Oro or A.P. Indy-line sire, this 2yo should handle dirt sprints well but may be better suited stretching out to routes as a 3yo. Watch debut closely — early speed with stamina pedigree is a potent combination.
🧬
Vermont by Unknown — Mark Casse likely targeting turf or synthetic longer-term
Casse routinely develops horses for turf routes. If Vermont is by a European or turf sire line (War Front, Kitten's Joy type), today's 5f dirt sprint is a foundation start and the horse's ceiling may be significantly higher on grass at 1m+. Flag for turf routing in fall.
🧬
Knows Everything by Unknown — Dale Romans trainee, 3yo filly
Dale Romans is known for handling mid-level dirt horses with versatility. Form of 65 is limited but the trainer's presence at Gulfstream in summer suggests a horse being pointed toward a specific condition. If pedigree includes any turf influence, the 1m dirt route (Race 6) could be a stepping stone to a turf try.
🧬
Elenique by Unknown — Patrick Biancone trainee suggests possible European/turf breeding
Biancone regularly handles horses with European or turf pedigrees. If Elenique carries French or British bloodlines, her consistent placings on dirt may actually understate her talent — she could be significantly better on grass at 1m+. Her form (2-54233) with multiple places at route distances screams turf route candidate.
Value Pick
Overlay Play of the Card
4-1
Race 5 • Dirt Sprint
Brushfire is a last-out winner (form 33286-1) returning in the same 6f dirt sprint class at Gulfstream with trainer Victor Barboza, who doubles up in this race with R Winchester — a sign of stable confidence. Returning winners in sprint sprints at this level at Gulfstream are notoriously underlaid, yet Brushfire at 4-1 is fair overlay given the last-out momentum and Barboza's live barn form.
Last-out winner at this distance/surface
Trainer doubles up in same race indicating confidence
Recent form trending sharply upward (33286-1)
Win Probability by Bet
Longshot | Trainer PatternElenique to Win — Race 6 (148408), 1m Dirt Route 3yo
Trainer | Recent FormBrushfire to Win — Race 7 (148407), 6f Dirt Sprint
Trainer | Jockey ComboCorta Fuego to Win — Race 4 (148406), 1m70y Dirt Route
Trainer | 2yo PatternVermont Exacta/Place — Race 3 (148405), 5f Dirt Sprint 2yo
Actionable Bets for Today
Brushfire (form 33286-1) won last out and returns for trainer Victor Barboza who doubles up in this race with R Winchester. The barn is clearly in form. A post-layoff win followed by a sharp return is a classic pattern on the Gulfstream summer circuit. At 4-1, the price offers real value against the 2.5-1 favorite R Winchester — and if there's stable intent, Brushfire could be the chosen runner.
Won last out (most recent form = 1)
Victor Barboza in-form barn (2 winners in recent form today)
4-1 represents value vs. low-priced stablemate
6f Dirt Sprint suits recent profile
Corta Fuego (form 452172) has won recently and finished 2nd last out — consistent performer at this distance. Edwin Gonzalez, the card's standout jockey (won Race 1 at 13-1 today), picks up this mount for the David Fawkes barn. Fawkes will be motivated to bounce back after Mary Marguerite's shocking flop in Race 1. The 3.75 price is fair but represents value given the jockey upgrade and trainer intent.
Recent win + place in form (452172)
Edwin Gonzalez riding — won Race 1 at 13-1 today
Trainer Fawkes bounce-back motivation after Race 1 disaster
1m70y suits consistent route profile
Mark Casse is one of the most respected conditioners in North America and his 2yo horses routinely improve sharply from first to second starts. Vermont placed (3rd) on debut and now shortens in price to 3.5-1 at Gulfstream. Pair with Lord Henry (bullet work, Orseno) in exacta. Casse's Gulfstream presence in summer development races is a reliable positive pattern.
Mark Casse Hall of Fame trainer, strong 2yo developer
Placed on debut — classic second-start bounce
3.5-1 competitive price in open 2yo sprint
Pair with Lord Henry (bullet workout) for exacta coverage
Patrick Biancone is a noted international trainer with a strong record conditioning fillies at routes. Elenique (form 2-54233) shows consistent placing and is listed as the overwhelming 2-1 favorite in this 3yo 1m field. The form reads as an improving filly who narrowly misses — today's field looks beatable. Race 1 showed favorites can get beaten but Elenique's consistency across multiple recent starts is a more reliable foundation than one-hit winners.
Patrick Biancone elite trainer pedigree
Consistent recent form (2-54233 — multiple places)
2-1 favorite in weak 3yo field
1m dirt route suits profile of a Biancone-trained staying filly
Longshot Special
Underdog ITM Pick • 10-1 or Longer
8-1
Race 4 • Dirt Route
Bettera's form string 375611 shows back-to-back victories — this horse is on a heater and enters the 1m70y route off consecutive wins, yet opens at 8-1 in a large field dominated by market attention on SARATOGA FLASH and Corta Fuego. Trainer J. Sweezey has this horse sharp and confident; back-to-back route winners at Gulfstream routinely get overlooked in deep fields. The inside number and winning momentum make Bettera a prime ITM candidate with big price upside.
Back-to-back winners (form 375611)
Overlooked at 8-1 despite clear form superiority over bottom half of field
Routing specialists with winning streaks thrive in summer allowance conditions at Gulfstream
Key Takeaways
1.
CHALK BUSTED IN ROUTE — Race 1's 2.25 favorite Mary Marguerite (trainer David Fawkes) finished LAST while 13-1 shot Terrie T won. The 1m dirt route at Gulfstream today is NOT a chalk race type — favor stalkers and pace-pressers over presumed class horses, and be cautious with short-priced route favorites on this card.
2.
VICTOR BARBOZA BARN IS HOT — Both Brushfire and R Winchester carry recent wins (form digit '1' most recently) and run in the same 6f sprint (Race 7). This is a barn firing at full capacity. Brushfire at 4-1 offers better value; the exacta combining both stable runners at fair prices is the play of the card.
3.
MARK CASSE 2YO PATTERN AND LORD HENRY BULLET WORKOUT are the two standout signals in Race 3. Vermont (Casse, placed on debut) and Lord Henry (Orseno, bullet work ranked 1/2 in group) represent the top two plays in what is otherwise a very open 2yo maiden sprint — use both on top in exacta/quinella to maximize coverage.
Yesterday's Results — 2026-07-12
$90.00 wagered ·
$149.01 returned ·
+$59.01
| Race |
WIN Pick |
PLACE Pick |
SHOW Pick |
P&L |
| R1 |
Bolero Bay ✓W
|
Im Sam ✓S
|
Oscars Angel (4th)
|
$-3.24
|
| R2 |
Just Take Not (4th)
|
Slew Diva ✓P
|
Saras Rose ✓W
|
+$5.97
|
| R1 |
Win Street ✓W
|
Rule Seventy (5th)
|
Blame It On L ✓S
|
+$28.65
|
| R2 |
Rotisserie (9th)
|
Band On The R ✓P
|
Dandy Vandy(F ✓W
|
+$33.59
|
| R1 |
Brave Samanth (5th)
|
Madelyn Attac (4th)
|
Rietta ✓W
|
$-5.96
|
Today's Exacta Picks
Race 8 • Straight Exacta
Est. payout: $9
Sculcos Folly dominant; Talk To Me Franco reliable second.
Race 7 • Straight Exacta
Est. payout: $14
Ten Cent Town top form; Pompous Prince last-out winner.
A full dirt card at Finger Lakes saw a mix of chalk winners and modest upsets across six completed races. Favorites held up reasonably well in route races (1m 70y, 1m 110y), while the sprint races produced the card's most notable upset — COACH BAHE winning at 5.5-1 in Race 2 over short-priced favorite KHALIS DREAM. The Jonathan Buckley/Kevin Navarro combination emerged as the day's hottest connection, firing winners in back-to-back route races.
Neutral Track
Finger Lakes is an all-dirt track. The 1m 70y routes dominated the card (three races at that distance), and closers/stalkers appeared to have the edge — Peek (Race 1) and Inonit (Race 5) both rated or tracked the pace before asserting. In the sprints (6f, 5f 110y), pace-pressing types proved effective, with COACH BAHE and Lincolnville Beach both tracking or pressing before drawing clear. Overall, the bias leans slightly toward pace-pressing/stalking types over pure front-runners or deep closers. Route races were contested honestly with no extreme pace scenarios noted. Multiple non-runners across the card created late field changes, which may have contributed to some upsets.
Class Breakdown
Open Claiming / Allowance Optional Claiming (3yo+, Routes 1m 70y)
3 races • 1 fav won
Low Predictability
Three races at 1m 70y for 3yo+ produced two major upsets (COACH BAHE at 5.5, Gray Haired Gus at 9.0). Favorites won only Race 6 (Inonit, 1.83). Route races at Finger Lakes are particularly volatile — longshot angles pay.
Open Claiming / Allowance (3yo+, Dirt Sprint 6f)
2 races • 0 favs won
Low Predictability
KHALIS DREAM (1.73) beaten in Race 2 at 6f. Sprint favorites at Finger Lakes have underperformed significantly today. Value lies with mid-price contenders in the 5-1 to 8-1 range.
Allowance / Maiden (3yo only, Routes 1m 110y)
2 races • 1 fav won
Medium Predictability
Venetta (1.91) won Race 3 convincingly in 3yo-only route. These younger horse races rewarded the chalk once. Sculcos Folly (form 1-21111) looks dominant for Race 8 (148401) — may continue chalk trend.
Claiming / Allowance (3yo+, Dirt Sprint 5f 110y)
1 race • 1 fav won
Medium Predictability
Lincolnville Beach (2.75) won Race 5 going shorter at 5f 110y. Second favorite held in shorter sprints. Chris Englehart barn sharp at this distance.
Beaten Favorites
1.73-1
Race 2 • Finished 2/7 • Dirt Sprint
Heavy favorite in a 6f dirt sprint got outkicked by COACH BAHE at 5.5-1. Likely raced awkwardly out of the gate or found trouble in traffic; 6f pace may have been faster than expected, setting up a closer. Form figure '2' as last finish may indicate chronic runner-up tendency.
2.0-1
Race 4 • Finished 2/7 • Dirt Route
Even-money chalk for M Ferraro/Keiber Coa combo beaten by 9-1 shot Gray Haired Gus. Horse was likely bet down on barn connections but recurring form figures of 4-4-1-9-4-3 suggest inconsistency. Buckley/Navarro barn fired a live longshot.
2.75-1
Race 4 • Finished 3/7 • Dirt Route
Second favorite finished third behind both the winner and the even-money chalk. Coming off a win (form ends in '1') but could not replicate; may have been caught wide or suffered trip trouble in the route.
1.83-1
Race 6 • Finished 1/8 • Dirt Route
NOT a beaten favorite — Inonit WON. Included for correction: the chalk held here.
Who's Coming In Hot
Jonathan Buckley
Trainer
3 recent wins
Buckley fires with two route winners on the day card (COACH BAHE in Race 2 at 6f, Gray Haired Gus in Race 4 at 1m 70y). On today's remaining card, Busy Busy Busy (Race 6, form 542-543) shows consistent top-4 finishes. Buckley's horses are fit and firing — form strings show multiple recent top-3 finishes across his stable.
Kevin Navarro
Jockey
3 recent wins
Navarro piloted both Buckley winners (COACH BAHE, Gray Haired Gus). On today's remaining card, he rides in Race 6 (Busy Busy Busy, form 542-543 shows recent activity). Strong form partnership with Buckley is the angle to follow; Navarro's recent mounts show multiple win form figures across connections.
Manuel Franco
Jockey
3 recent wins
Franco won Race 1 aboard Peek and sits second in Race 6 (Mo Curls). On today's remaining card he rides Antonio Of Venice (Race 7, form 33-2512 — last 5: '2512' includes a win) and Talk To Me Jimmy (Race 8, form 31-182 — last 5: '1182' includes a win). Consistently placed on live horses across both route and sprint distances.
M Ferraro
Trainer
3 recent wins
Multiple runners across the card; Passioned (3rd Race 1), Hey Pal (2nd Race 4), Almez (3rd Race 6). On today's card, Ferraro sends out Peeling Out (Race 9, form 2931-68) and Speedstre (Race 8, scratched). Form strings show 'Lifeisbutadream' had a recent win (form 126-321 includes '1'). Ferraro's stable is volume-based but consistently placing horses.
R Rodriguez
Trainer
2 recent wins
Saddled Peek (Race 1 winner, form 2-66127 shows recent win) and Mo Curls (2nd Race 6). On today's upcoming card, Antonio Of Venice (Race 7, form 33-2512 includes a win figure) and Talk To Me Jimmy (Race 8, form 31-182 includes a '1') are live threats. Rodriguez is a consistent mid-card Finger Lakes conditioner with multiple horses in top-2 form.
Chris Englehart
Trainer
2 recent wins
Englehart won with KHALIS DREAM (2nd in Race 2, but trained the near-favorite) and fired Lincolnville Beach to victory in Race 5 (form 616-136 — last 5: '6136' includes a win). Both runners at sprint distances. Englehart is a proven Finger Lakes sprint specialist; his sprinters should be respected as short prices.
Trainer & Jockey Form (Recent Card Horses)
| Name |
Starters Today |
Recent Wins |
ITM % |
|
M Ferraro / Michael Ferraro
Trainer
Dominant presence on the card with double-digit starters. Form strings consistently show 1s, 2s, and 3s across his barn. Keiber Coa is the preferred pilot. Multiple horses ITM across completed races — high-volume, high-ITM trainer to follow at Finger Lakes.
|
10 |
7 |
100% |
|
Jonathan Buckley
Trainer
Fired Gray Haired Gus at 9-1 for a winning upset in Race 4 (148397). Partners exclusively with Kevin Navarro. Form strings for his starters all show recent 1s and 2s. Small but sharp operation — bet when Navarro is up.
|
3 |
2 |
100% |
|
R Rodriguez
Trainer
Won Race 1 with Peek (2.88) and connects with Manuel Franco as go-to jockey. Talk To Me Jimmy (148401) is a live morning-line contender. Horses show consistent recent form with 1s in last 5.
|
3 |
2 |
100% |
|
Lisa Lugovich
Trainer
Won Race 6 (148399) with Inonit at 1.83 — chalk that held. Isola Doro also showed ITM in Race 4. Small stable, solid ITM rate at Finger Lakes.
|
2 |
1 |
100% |
|
Rachel Sells
Trainer
Olazabal ran second in Race 1 with form '18-1011' showing multiple recent wins. Winston D (148402) carries recent win in form '44-0721'. Active barn, both horses show strong recent figures.
|
2 |
2 |
100% |
|
Timothy Murphy
Trainer
RHYMES LIKE DIMES ran 4th in Race 1. Hay Hay Harry (148400) and REITERATE (148398) both showed limited recent form. Moderate ITM rate; horses at longer prices, limited value unless form improves.
|
3 |
1 |
67% |
|
Chris Englehart
Trainer
Won Race 5 (148398) with Lincolnville Beach at 2.75. ACE UP HER SLEEVE ran 4th but showed 3s in recent form. KHALIS DREAM was a beaten favorite in Race 2. Good ITM percentage but chalk let down once.
|
3 |
1 |
100% |
|
Thomas Morley
Trainer
Victory Hall ran second in Race 3 (148396); Irish Fortune also has recent '1' in form. Both horses are 3yo route specialists — watch for barn to fire again in next starts.
|
2 |
2 |
100% |
|
Jr Richard Dutrow
Trainer
Sculcos Folly (148401) has extraordinary form '1-21111' — five wins in last six, current favorite at 1.91. Dutrow barn historically fires sharp horses; this is the standout of the upcoming card.
|
1 |
1 |
100% |
|
Manuel Franco
Jockey
Won Race 1 aboard Peek. Has 4 mounts on the card including Talk To Me Jimmy (148401) and Antonio Of Venice (148400). Form strings on his mounts consistently show recent wins and ITM efforts. Top rider on the card — high-confidence plays when odds allow.
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4 |
3 |
100% |
|
Keiber Coa
Jockey
Regular pilot for M Ferraro barn. Rode Passioned (3rd, Race 1), beaten chalk Hey Pal (2nd, Race 4), and Almez (3rd, Race 6). Mounts consistently hit the board. Good form rider — expect continued ITM.
|
4 |
3 |
100% |
|
Kevin Navarro
Jockey
Won Race 2 with COACH BAHE (upset, 5.5-1) and Race 4 with Gray Haired Gus (9-1 upset). Two big-priced winners on the same card — hot hand. Exclusively rides for Jonathan Buckley; strong angle when Buckley/Navarro combo fires.
|
3 |
2 |
100% |
|
Reylu Gutierrez
Jockey
Rode Isola Doro (3rd, Race 4) and Lincolnville Beach winner (Race 5). Four mounts on the card with solid recent form horses. Versatile on routes and sprints at Finger Lakes.
|
4 |
2 |
100% |
|
Jeremias Flores
Jockey
Rode Olazabal (2nd, Race 1) and Bustino Santino (4th, Race 2). Has Cryster (148401) and Just A Guy (148402) upcoming. Form strings on mounts show mix of recent wins and placings.
|
4 |
2 |
100% |
|
Michael Jr Davila
Jockey
Rode RHYMES LIKE DIMES (4th, Race 1) and Beautys Bangle (2nd, Race 5). Horses show scattered form; mid-tier rider on the card.
|
3 |
2 |
67% |
Horses to Watch Next Time
2ndWINWIN
Won at 1.91 with a clean form line of 211 — three starts, three top-2 finishes with a win last out. Handled by Kendrick Carmouche for Danny Gargan, who is a quality connection even at this level. She is improving fast and may be pointed toward a classification upgrade. Follow closely if she steps up in class or distance.
Bet Next Time
2ndWIN
George Weaver is a serious NYC-based trainer whose presence at Finger Lakes with a 2-1 shot (form: 21, two starts) is a significant class angle. Ran third at short odds today but clearly has upside. If Weaver transfers this filly to a turf route at a bigger circuit, she could be significantly underbet. Monitor her next entry closely — potential major overlay.
Bet Next Time
WIN4th8th5thPREV3rd3rd
Won at 9-1 despite two consecutive 3rd-place finishes — this looked like a horse whose price was inflated by the 4/5/8 figures earlier in the form line. Jonathan Buckley clearly had him primed for today. Follow back in a similar or slightly easier spot — the win came convincingly enough to suggest more is there.
Bet Next Time
WINPREV2ndWINWINWINWIN
Form reads 1-21111 — virtually flawless recent record. Installed as the 1.91 morning-line favorite today for a reason. Dutrow Jr is a capable conditioner at this level. If this horse wins today as expected, he will likely face a class hike next out — watch carefully to see if the market respects him at the new level or offers value.
Bet Next Time
6thWIN3rdWIN2ndWIN
Form reads 613121 — three wins and consistent placings in last six. Brad Cox (if this is the Brad Cox) running at Finger Lakes is a major betting signal. Priced at 3.75, this horse has legitimate form and top connections. Should be a strong play in Race 7 today.
Bet Next Time
5thWIN2ndPREV4th2nd6th
Beat the 1.73 chalk KHALIS DREAM at 5.5-1 in Race 2. The form line 512-426 didn't scream winner but Buckley had him ready. At 9 years old, this is likely a spot play horse — watch for Jonathan Buckley to target similar spots when the horse is rested and freshened.
Workout Standouts — full detail in Workouts PDF
⏱
Venetta
C
No workout data provided — form string '211' signals sharp, improving 3yo filly
Three-race win streak with back-to-back wins confirms she's in peak form. At 1.91 she delivered — connections (Gargan/Carmouche) are top-shelf for the level. Next start watch for class hike.
⏱
Sculcos Folly
C
No workout data provided — form string '1-21111' is elite for Finger Lakes level
Five wins in last six starts with no workout data needed to flag this horse. Dutrow barn is rolling. At 1.91 morning line, may be underlaid but still the play in an upcoming route for 3yos.
⏱
Gray Haired Gus
C
No workout data provided — form '1485-33' suggested improving back half of season
Won at 9-1 today — Buckley/Navarro fired sharp. Watch for barn to press their luck next start, potentially at a higher claiming tag. Do not blindly follow back at shorter price.
Pedigree Alerts
🧬
Venetta by Unknown (3yo filly, progressive form 211)
Rapid progression through three starts suggests pedigree may support step up to allowance or stakes company. If turf-bred on any side, a surface change to grass could unlock significant improvement. Monitor barn's next entry intent closely.
🧬
Careless Whisper by Unknown (George Weaver trainee)
George Weaver typically trains turf and dirt horses for high-end owners. A filly with form '21' running at Finger Lakes for Weaver may be a prep for a turf route at Saratoga or a larger venue. Strong class-relief angle — watch for turf entry or transfer to a major circuit.
🧬
Ten Cent Town by Unknown (B Cox trainee)
Brad Cox-trained horses at Finger Lakes are almost always pointed somewhere specific. Form 613121 suggests the horse is at peak fitness. If pedigree includes any route influence (Curlin, Tapit, Medaglia d'Oro), watch for a stretch-out attempt in an allowance route at a larger track.
🧬
Yo Banana Boy by Unknown (Michael Maker trainee)
Michael Maker is a major national trainer (Keeneland, Churchill Downs level). His presence at Finger Lakes with Yo Banana Boy (form 23-1474) is a class alert. The horse won recently ('1' in form) but the '474' afterward suggests regression — Maker may be using this spot to restore confidence before a bigger target.
🧬
Sculcos Folly by Unknown (Jr Richard Dutrow trainee)
Five wins in last six starts with form 1-21111 at this level. If by a dirt speed sire (Into Mischief, Gun Runner, Candy Ride), this horse may be exhausting his current class level and facing a sharp class hike imminently. Bet him today but reassess value in next start.
Value Pick
Overlay Play of the Card
4-1
Race 7 • Dirt Sprint
Ten Cent Town carries elite recent form '613121' — four wins in last six starts including back-to-back victories. Trained by B Cox (a recognizable quality handler), this horse is running in a 6f sprint where his late speed and consistency give him a clear edge. At morning-line 3.75 he represents solid overlay value given the field's inconsistent form.
Form string 613121 — dominant recent record
B Cox training angle — quality operation
Sprint distance 6f suits consistent front-end speed
Several rivals (Hay Hay Harry, Crypto Causeway) are long-shots with weak recent figures
Win Probability by Bet
TrainerSculcos Folly WIN — Race 8 (148401), 1m 110y Dirt Route (Banker/Single)
Owner/TrainerTen Cent Town WIN — Race 7 (148400), 6f Dirt Sprint
Trainer/JockeyAntonio Of Venice WIN — Race 7 (148400), 6f Dirt Sprint
Trainer/Jockey ComboTalk To Me Jimmy WIN — Race 8 (148401), 1m 110y Dirt Route
Trainer PatternRagtime Prankster PLACE — Race 9 (148402), 6f Dirt Sprint
Actionable Bets for Today
Ten Cent Town (form: 613121) shows three wins in last six starts and is trained by B Cox — a trainer whose caliber far exceeds what typically appears at Finger Lakes. The horse is priced at 3.75, offering value given a dominant recent form line. Reylu Gutierrez rides, who was active across the card today. Dirt sprint conditions suit the pace-pressing bias identified across the card.
Form 613121 — three wins including most recent start
B Cox trainer angle — significant class edge over typical Finger Lakes competition
3.75 price is generous given the form line
Dirt sprint bias confirmed by today's results
Reylu Gutierrez in-form across today's card
R Rodriguez/Manuel Franco combination fired two placed horses today and Talk To Me Jimmy (form: 31-182) shows a win and multiple placings in recent form — the '1' in the last five figures confirms recent winning ability. Priced at 2.62, this is a fair-money horse with a hot connection behind it. The main threat is Sculcos Folly at 1.91 (form: 1-21111), but if Rodriguez/Franco fire again, Talk To Me Jimmy represents the value alternative.
R Rodriguez/Manuel Franco duo won and placed multiple times today
Form 31-182 shows recent win and consistency
2.62 price offers mild overlay over Sculcos Folly
Dirt route at 1m 110y suits stalker types — pattern confirmed today
3yo-only race opens door if Sculcos Folly underperforms
Form line 1-21111 is extraordinary for this level — five wins in last six starts with only a 2nd interrupting the winning streak. Jr Richard Dutrow is a capable conditioner and this horse is clearly the class of the race at 1.91. While the price is short, the reliability of the form makes this a strong single in multiples or a banker in exotics.
1-21111 form — dominant at this level
Morning line favorite at 1.91 — market agrees
Jr Richard Dutrow has a history of placing horses in optimal spots
3yo-only race limits the opposition quality
Route bias confirmed by Venetta and Inonit winning at chalk prices in routes today
R Rodriguez/Manuel Franco bounce back in a sprint context after a route-focused card — Antonio Of Venice (form: 33-2512) shows a recent win ('1' in last five figures) and solid consistency. Priced at 2.20, this is co-favorite territory with Ten Cent Town at 3.75 providing more value, but Antonio Of Venice has the hot jockey and trainer combo. Use underneath in exactas with Ten Cent Town on top.
Form 33-2512 includes a recent win
Manuel Franco won Race 1 and placed Race 6 today — in top form
R Rodriguez 2/2 in placing horses today
2.20 price reflects genuine market confidence
Sprint bias confirmed — pace-pressers win; Antonio Of Venice's form suggests positional racing
In a wide-open 10-horse 6f sprint where the top odds are 3.25 (Fiscal Drag, Winston D), Ragtime Prankster (4.50) offers each-way value. Form reads 557-D36 — the 'D' indicates a disqualification which often inflates bad perception, with a 3rd and 6th either side suggesting competitive effort. Donna Bireta has two runners in this race (Just A Guy, Ragtime Prankster), suggesting the stable knows the horse is fit.
4.50 each-way price in a competitive wide-open sprint
Disqualification in form ('D') often makes horses look worse than they are
Donna Bireta running two horses in same race suggests barn confidence in at least one
Wide-open market — no dominant chalk to anchor the race
Dirt sprint bias confirmed; Ragtime Prankster should compete for minor money
Longshot Special
Underdog ITM Pick • 10-1 or Longer
5-1
Race 9 • Dirt Sprint
Ragtime Prankster closed the last race with a '6' but prior figures show a '3' and a '5' with one disqualification ('D') sandwiched in — suggesting a horse that had legitimate speed efforts masked by trouble. In a 10-horse field at 6f with several habitual deep closers and maidens, this horse's back form puts him in the mix at big odds. Donna Bireta barn has multiple runners on the card and may be targeting this spot.
Form '557-D36' hides a disqualified effort that may have been a placing
10-horse field creates pace confusion and trip lottery scenarios
4.5-1 morning line in chaotic sprint — overlaid if field shape sets up pace collapse
Bireta barn active on card with multiple starters — stable in good form
Key Takeaways
1.
Jonathan Buckley/Kevin Navarro is the card's hottest trainer-jockey combination — two winners from routes, with COACH BAHE (5.5-1) and Gray Haired Gus (9-1) both delivering value. Back this combo aggressively when it surfaces in route races at Finger Lakes.
2.
Dirt sprint bias favors pace-pressers/stalkers at Finger Lakes — pure front-runners and deep closers underperformed all day. When handicapping sprints here, eliminate deep-closers and prioritize horses with tactical speed in their form.
3.
Major-trainer/major-jockey angle is the key overlay signal at Finger Lakes — George Weaver (Careless Whisper), Brad Cox (Ten Cent Town), Michael Maker (Yo Banana Boy), and Jr Richard Dutrow (Sculcos Folly) all operating below their usual circuit level. These horses should be respected in the market and monitored for profitable next-starts, especially if switching surface, distance, or stepping up in class.
Yesterday's Results — 2026-07-12
$90.00 wagered ·
$149.01 returned ·
+$59.01
| Race |
WIN Pick |
PLACE Pick |
SHOW Pick |
P&L |
| R1 |
Bolero Bay ✓W
|
Im Sam ✓S
|
Oscars Angel (4th)
|
$-3.24
|
| R2 |
Just Take Not (4th)
|
Slew Diva ✓P
|
Saras Rose ✓W
|
+$5.97
|
| R1 |
Win Street ✓W
|
Rule Seventy (5th)
|
Blame It On L ✓S
|
+$28.65
|
| R2 |
Rotisserie (9th)
|
Band On The R ✓P
|
Dandy Vandy(F ✓W
|
+$33.59
|
| R1 |
Brave Samanth (5th)
|
Madelyn Attac (4th)
|
Rietta ✓W
|
$-5.96
|
Today's Exacta Picks
Race 3 • Straight Exacta
Est. payout: $14
Paynted Warrior leads; Bold Diversion consistent second finisher.
Race 5 • Box Exacta
Est. payout: $16
Golden Descent and Hell Ofa Hillbilly both showing sharp recent form.
A chalk-friendly card at Colonial Downs with four of five completed races won by horses at 4-1 or shorter, though a pair of moderate upsets (Outlaw Country at 6-1, Golden Descent at 34-1) broke the pattern. The card was dominated by dirt sprint and short dirt route racing with no turf events in the completed races. Favorites held up well in open company but struggled in the older claimers/allowances, suggesting pace collapse was a recurring theme in the sprint races.
Neutral Track
Dirt sprint bias was evident across the card — horses with recent positional speed and solid closing form in the 6f-7f range were consistently rewarded. Race 3 (7f) saw the Joanne Shankle barn dominate with the top two finishers, suggesting horses who pressed or stalked the pace were most effective. The one short sprint (5f 110y, Race 4) produced a mild upset at 6-1, indicating pace-pressing horses at short distances may have gotten loose on the front end. No turf races ran, so all bias conclusions are dirt-based. Overall: front-runners and pressers had a marginal edge at 6f; closers improved in the 7f event.
Class Breakdown
Maiden/Starter Allowance (Inferred — 3yo+ mixed fields, no claiming tags evident)
5 races • 3 favs won
Medium Predictability
Colonial Downs card ran 5 completed races all at 6f or shorter (except one 7f). Favorites won 3 of 5 at 60% — exactly average. Two upsets (Outlaw Country at 6-1, Fayes Heart at 3.25 over shorter-priced Mose Smokin) suggest pace scenarios and form recency matter more than raw price. Sprint bias was evident — all 5 completed races at 7f or less.
Beaten Favorites
2.1-1
Race 4 • Finished 2/6 • Dirt Sprint
Opened as a heavy chalk at 2.1 in a 5f110y dirt sprint but failed to hold off 6-1 shot Outlaw Country. Form showed a recent 8th (last figure in form string) suggesting a form reversal was overdue; the distance may have been slightly short for best efforts.
2.63-1
Race 2 • Finished 3/6 • Dirt Sprint
Second choice at 2.63 finished third behind 3.25 winner Fayes Heart. Recent form (6-45543) showed a pattern of flattening late in sprints; likely one-paced and unable to sustain speed through the wire.
Who's Coming In Hot
Joanne Shankle
Trainer
3 recent wins
Remarkable 1-2 finish in Race 3 with Zero Blitz and Bold Diversion. Zero Blitz's form '433211-' shows back-to-back wins and a strong recent trajectory. Bold Diversion's form '145251' shows three wins in last six, consistent presence at or near the top. Shankle is clearly sharp at Colonial Downs right now — back her horses at any reasonable price on this circuit.
Jorge Ruiz
Jockey
2 recent wins
Won Race 3 aboard Zero Blitz (Shankle) and Race 4 aboard Outlaw Country (6-1 upset). Ruiz is two-for-two on the card and appears to be in the groove at Colonial Downs. His mounts showed a pattern of winning at SP ranges that suggest he is getting good horses funneled to him by in-form barns. Prioritize his mounts today.
Jean Briceno
Jockey
2 recent wins
In Honor Of Jeff (Race 2) hit the board at 11-1 for a second-place finish, and Catahoula Moon (Race 4) ran fourth. Form of In Honor Of Jeff '4-36531' shows a win last out — Briceno is placing horses effectively. His book shows horses with recent winning form across multiple trainers.
John Robb
Trainer
2 recent wins
Fayes Heart won Race 2 impressively; form '851741' shows two wins in last six with improving pattern. Noah Chance (scratched Race 4) shows form '692-211' — three wins in last five, a highly active and in-form horse. Robb is one of the hotter trainers on this card and his barn seems to be peaking mid-meet.
Paco Lopez
Jockey
2 recent wins
Mose Smokin (Race 2, 2.63-1 favourite) finished third — underperformed marginally. Sometime (Race 5) faded to fifth. However, Lopez is riding multiple live horses and his mounts' form strings ('6-45543' and '571742') show recent positional activity. He remains a key jockey at Colonial Downs despite a quiet card yesterday.
Brittany Russell
Trainer
2 recent wins
Sends out Up On The Rock (debut, favourite at 2.62) and La Devita (form '77', second race) in today's upcoming Race 6 (1m 110y). Up On The Rock is the morning-line favourite on debut — Russell's first-time starters deserve respect. La Devita has two starts with consistent finishes. Watch for Russell's debut runners to outrun their odds.
Trainer & Jockey Form (Recent Card Horses)
| Name |
Starters Today |
Recent Wins |
ITM % |
|
Joanne Shankle
Trainer
Dominant performance — saddled the winner and runner-up in Race 148388 (Zero Blitz & Bold Diversion) plus Gallo in Race 148387. All three horses hit the board; strong barn form right now at Colonial Downs.
|
3 |
3 |
100% |
|
Jose Magana
Trainer
Great Heavens hit the board (3rd, Race 148390) and Catahoula Moon finished 4th. Colonel Bob finished last (8th) in Race 148391. Mixed results but turf/sprint angle worth monitoring.
|
3 |
0 |
67% |
|
Brittany Russell
Trainer
Runners Up On The Rock (debuting) and La Devita (form: 77) in Race 148393. Both have limited form to assess; Up On The Rock is the morning-line favorite at 2.62 despite no prior form — barn confidence angle.
|
2 |
0 |
0% |
|
Hugh McMahon
Trainer
Pippin The Warrior ran second in Race 148386 — a solid ITM result. Dream Overture (form: 44-4) and Zirconia (form: 88-87) in Race 148393 both show bottom-of-field tendencies; barn best with short prices.
|
3 |
0 |
33% |
|
Gerard Ochoa
Trainer
Outlaw Country won at 6-1 (Race 148390) — a nice upset score. LEE ANNS WARRIOR finished 6th in the same race. One sharp winner at a price; keep on radar for overlays.
|
2 |
1 |
50% |
|
John Robb
Trainer
Fayes Heart won Race 148387; Hell Ofa Hillbilly and Noah Chance also showed recent wins in form. Strong barn — Fayes Heart win continues a hot streak. Worth following all starters from this barn.
|
3 |
2 |
100% |
|
Paco Lopez
Jockey
Rode Mose Smokin to a 3rd in Race 148387. Mounts include Sometime (5th, Race 148391) and Hay Grace Brennan in Race 148393. Workmanlike day — hits the board consistently but needs better horses to convert wins.
|
4 |
1 |
75% |
|
Jorge Ruiz
Jockey
Won Race 148388 aboard Zero Blitz and rode Outlaw Country to victory in Race 148390 — a double on the card. Hot rider at Colonial Downs today; very live on any mount going forward.
|
3 |
1 |
67% |
|
Jose Vargas
Jockey
Rode Great Heavens to 3rd (Race 148390) and Captain Mercury to 4th (Race 148391). Consistent ITM presence but no wins on the day; competitive on mid-tier horses.
|
3 |
0 |
67% |
|
Jean Briceno
Jockey
Catahoula Moon 4th in Race 148390 was the best result. Soul Sucker 4th in Race 148386. Finishing just off the board repeatedly — riders needing better trips or class drops to convert.
|
3 |
0 |
33% |
|
Xavier Perez
Jockey
Won Race 148387 aboard Fayes Heart. Hell Ofa Hillbilly finished 6th in Race 148391. One clean winner; good form with John Robb horses specifically.
|
2 |
1 |
50% |
|
Mychel Sanchez
Jockey
Paynted Warrior finished 3rd in Race 148388. LEE ANNS WARRIOR 6th in Race 148390. Paynted By Nancy in Race 148393 still to run. Inconsistent day but solid in the route.
|
3 |
0 |
33% |
Horses to Watch Next Time
4th7th6thPREV2ndWINWIN
Won at 34-1 as a massive longshot in Race 5, beating a field of mostly 3-4yo horses. The form '476-211' shows back-to-back wins coming in and this was the third consecutive improved performance. Trainer Caitlin Keil placed this horse perfectly. Will be dramatically shorter next time and will attract serious money.
3rd5th3rd4thWIN6th
Won at 6-1 on a day when most favourites held. Form '353416' shows a previous win and the horse was returning to a very short sprint distance. Trainer Gerard Ochoa placed him perfectly at 5f 110y where pace collapses. Dangerous in similar spot again but will be chalked up.
Bet Next Time
4th3rd3rd2ndWINWINNEW SEASON
Won Race 3 at 3.5-1 with form showing back-to-back wins and a three-race winning streak including today. Under Joanne Shankle who went 1-2 in the race. This horse is at peak form mid-meet and will be a short-priced banker in similar conditions.
4thPREV3rd6th5th3rdWIN
Hit the board at 11-1 in Race 2 with a win last out. Trainer Alberto Delgado appears to be finding the right spot for this horse. If dropping in class or returning to a similar spot, the 11-1 price will be gone — back now if similar conditions arise.
Bet Next Time
WIN4th5th2nd5thWIN
Second in Race 3 to stablemate Zero Blitz. Three wins in last six starts. With Shankle going 1-2, this horse is clearly fit and well-placed. If Zero Blitz is absent next time, Bold Diversion steps up as the stable's main chance.
Bet Next Time
7thPREV2nd3rd3rd2nd3rd
Won Race 5 at 2-1 favourite despite a long streak of near-misses. Form '7-23323' is now 'improved to 1' — trainer Mark Simms will be confident to run back quickly. Horses that break maiden/winning duck after multiple placings often fire again immediately in next start.
Bet Next Time
Pedigree Alerts
🧬
Up On The Rock by Unknown (debut — no form)
First-time starter at 1m 110y dirt route. Distance suggests connections believe this horse has stamina in its breeding. If sired by a Tapit, Curlin, or Medaglia d'Oro line, this is an ideal debut spot. Market at 2.62 implies connections are very confident — debut at a route distance rather than a sprint is a significant positive pedigree signal.
🧬
Dream Overture by Unknown — form '44-4' suggests consistent middle-distance effort
Returning from layoff (dash in form) to 1m 110y route. If bred by a stamina sire, the layoff-to-route-debut pattern is a classic trainer setup. Form suggests a horse that has been close before — this distance step-up could be the catalyst.
🧬
Hay Grace Brennan by Unknown — form '6666' is uniformly poor
Four consecutive 6th-place finishes is a massive red flag regardless of pedigree. Even at 5.5-1, this horse has shown zero ability to improve. Unless this is a dramatic class drop or surface change, avoid. Pedigree likely does not suit any condition it has been placed in so far.
🧬
Zirconia by Unknown — form '88-87' suggests distance/surface mismatch
Form '88-87' shows tail-of-field finishes at distance. At 41-1, this is a clear throw-out. However, if this horse is bred for turf and has been running on dirt, a switch to grass could unlock improvement. Hugh McMahon may be using this as a route prep. Monitor for surface switch.
🧬
Golden Descent by Unknown — form '476-211' suggests dirt sprint specialist
Won at 34-1 yesterday in a dirt sprint. The form shows a two-race winning streak — this horse is finding its level. If sired by an Into Mischief or Gun Runner line, the 6f dirt sprint is its optimum. Will be heavily backed next time out and value will be gone — only consider if price remains fair.
Value Pick
Overlay Play of the Card
6-1
Race 6 • Dirt Route
Yeah Glo (form: 536-) stretches to 1m110y in Race 148393 and is priced at 6-1 morning line. The form shows a third-place finish which hints at positional ability, and the dash (-) may indicate a surface/distance switch or layoff that produces a bounce-back. At 1 mile-plus, horses bred for stamina can emerge from the pack — this horse at 6-1 offers real overlay value against debut horses and horses with repeated last-place finishes.
Prior third-place finish shows positional class
Stretching out to route distance may unlock improvement
Competitively priced at 6-1 against largely unproven field
Win Probability by Bet
TrainerBack Brittany Russell's Up On The Rock in Race 6 (148393) — Debut favourite at 1…
TrainerJoanne Shankle runners at 7f or longer — back any runner under 5-1
JockeyBack Jorge Ruiz mounts on today's card — he's two-for-two yesterday and in peak …
PedigreeYeah Glo (Race 6, 148393) at 6-1 — improving 3yo filly stretching to 1m 110y
TrainerHugh McMahon's Dream Overture (Race 6, 148393) each-way at 8-1
Actionable Bets for Today
Up On The Rock is a first-time starter sent out by Brittany Russell as the 2.62-1 morning-line favourite at 1m 110y. Russell's barn is clearly fit — La Devita is also in this race showing consistent form. First-time starters at this price from competent barns at Colonial Downs routinely outperform. The 1m 110y distance favors horses with stamina pedigrees, and the bookie is offering a fair price on a debut runner.
Brittany Russell sends two horses into Race 6 — strong barn confidence
Favourite on debut at a route distance — connections clearly like the horse
1m 110y route suits stamina-bred debutants who often improve off first run
Market support at 2.62 on debut is a significant positive signal
Ruiz won both Race 3 and Race 4 yesterday, including a 6-1 upset aboard Outlaw Country. Jockeys in this kind of form rhythm at smaller circuits tend to continue their hot streaks. He is clearly communicating well with horses and reading pace perfectly. Any Ruiz mount today at 5-1 or shorter deserves backing.
2/2 wins on yesterday's card
Won at sprint and short-route distances — versatile form
Colonial Downs circuit rider in hot form
Hot jockeys at regional tracks sustain form over multiple days
Shankle went 1-2 in the 7f Race 3 with Zero Blitz and Bold Diversion. Her barn is at peak fitness mid-meet at Colonial Downs. Two-horse entries or solo runners from her barn should be treated as live at any price under 5-1 at 7f or longer on dirt.
1-2 finish in Race 3 demonstrates barn sharpness
Both horses showed recent winning form prior to yesterday
7f-1m dirt route appears to be the sweet spot for Shankle at Colonial Downs
Multiple runners in the same race signals barn confidence in conditions
Yeah Glo's form '536-' shows a horse stepping back from a layoff (the dash) at a route distance. The 6-1 price is fair for a 3yo filly with limited form who could improve dramatically with the step up to 1m 110y. Trainer Karen Dennehy placing her here suggests confidence in the distance jump. The layoff may have been used to address issues and the horse returns freshened.
6-1 price offers value against debut horses with no form to assess
Return from layoff at a route distance often signals fitness peak
3yo fillies frequently improve with distance stretches in summer
Smaller field gives each horse a better chance of making the frame
McMahon sent out Pippin The Warrior to a second-place finish in Race 1 yesterday — the barn is active and competitive. Dream Overture's form '44-4' shows consistent placing form (multiple 4th-place finishes), and the horse is now returning from a layoff at a route distance. McMahon placing this horse in a wide-open 11-runner maiden at 8-1 suggests he believes the horse is ready to improve on its placing form.
McMahon had a placed horse yesterday — barn in current form
8-1 offers each-way value in an 11-runner maiden field
Form '44-4' shows consistent effort just off the pace — could break through
Route distance at 1m 110y suits horses that finish consistently without winning
Longshot Special
Underdog ITM Pick • 10-1 or Longer
5-1
Race 6 • Dirt Route
Hay Grace Brennan (form: 6666) looks like a throwout on paper but consistent bottom-of-field finishes in a 10-horse maiden field at 1m110y can be misleading — if those were against stronger company or on unfavorable surfaces, a class drop or surface/distance switch here opens a big door. Trainer III A Allen also conditions Sweet Spy who managed a 3rd in Race 148386, showing the barn can place horses to hit the board. At 5.5-1 morning line in a wide-open maiden route full of firsters and recurring losers, Hay Grace Brennan needs only one rival to blunder to sneak into the exacta.
Barn showed ITM ability earlier on the card (Sweet Spy 3rd)
Full field of inexperienced/inconsistent rivals in maiden route
Consistent efforts suggest fitness even if results are modest
Key Takeaways
1.
Joanne Shankle is the hottest trainer at Colonial Downs right now — her 1-2 finish in Race 3 at 7f demonstrates peak barn fitness. Back any Shankle runner at 7f+ on dirt at a price under 5-1 for the rest of the meet.
2.
Jorge Ruiz went 2-for-2 on yesterday's card and is clearly in sync with the track and its horses — prioritize his mounts today, especially at sprint distances where he demonstrated superior pace-reading ability.
3.
The upcoming Race 6 (1m 110y maiden, 11 runners) is the key betting race today — Up On The Rock at 2.62-1 is a legitimate favourite on debut from a double-entry barn (Brittany Russell), and Hugh McMahon's Dream Overture at 8-1 offers each-way value based on consistent placing form and trainer current form. Hay Grace Brennan (form 6666) and Zirconia (form 88-87) should be eliminated from all considerations.
